The Economic Clock – What Time is it?

With the US Federal Reserve and Australian Reserve Bank recently backtracking on their previous comments about interest rates rising in 2019, it made me think about “where are we in the Economic Clock.”

What is the Economic Clock?

The economy is said to go in a cycle. The Economic Clock demonstrates this movement in a cycle to indicate when is a good time to buy certain types of investment or when not to buy.

I understand that whilst these types of simplistic and generic “rules of thumb” can be challenging to gain a concise answer from, they do point you towards clues from the past as to what is going to happen next!

A key area where this “Clock” can be tricky is when you take in the regionalised nature of a lot of communities. For example, the growth of business or real estate in Sydney or Melbourne is vastly different to that of Dubbo or Boggabri. Then there are the areas, such as Hunter Valley that can boom and bust with the mining industry.

What time is it?

So, that said, if I had to have a stab at “what time is it?” then I would say 5.15

This is based on the slowing down of developments and some projects being “benched” till we are in better times …… see 1 o’clock!  There is also the fact that rents are stagnating and the banks have really turned the screws on lending hence the decline over the past 6 months in loan approvals as well as new dwelling approvals. Throw in that the Government (and oppositions) keenness to splash money around (election notwithstanding) you can see where I am coming from with my guesstimate.

So, let me know what time you think it is?

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The Economic Clock Source: RCP

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